MOTOGP EXPERTS EXPECT APRILIA TO CHALLENGE MARQUEZ IN PHILLIP ISLAND FAREWELL

MotoGP’s final Australian Grand Prix at Phillip Island is expected to set Marc Marquez against a strong Aprilia challenge, with the Spaniard arriving just two points behind championship leader Jorge Martin. From 2027, the race moves to a new street circuit in Adelaide, making this the last chance for riders to compete at the much-loved coastal track for the foreseeable future.

Marquez has won the Australian Grand Prix five times across all classes, including four victories in MotoGP, at Phillip Island in 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2024. Only Valentino Rossi, with eight wins, and Casey Stoner, with six, have won more. The circuit’s predominantly left-hand layout could suit Marquez, who has enjoyed some of his finest rides there. In 2019, he pressured Maverick Viñales into a last-lap error to win; in 2024, he recovered from a poor start after his rear tyre spun on his tear-off to beat Martin. The venue has also brought setbacks, including a major 2018 crash with Johann Zarco and his 2013 disqualification after a delayed bike change.

Marquez described the farewell as emotional, calling Phillip Island “an extraordinary circuit” with “a unique, breathtaking layout.” He added: “Here I won one of my first races with Ducati and we are motivated to do well, ready to fight right away for the positions that matter.”

Ducati team manager Davide Tardozzi sees the weekend as a test of the title contender’s prospects: Phillip Island may favour the Aprilia RS-GP’s cornering strengths over Ducati’s Desmosedici GP26. Aprilia’s four riders include Martin and Marco Bezzecchi, both in the championship fight.

Predictions for qualifying were split. One expert backed Marquez to claim his first pole since the German Grand Prix, while another tipped KTM’s Pedro Acosta, citing the Spaniard’s enthusiasm for the circuit and his final opportunity to race there for several years. The third choice was Bezzecchi, with the view that Aprilia needs a strong weekend to keep its title hopes alive.

Marquez was the most popular Sprint pick, with two writers forecasting a win and one expecting him to finish second behind Bezzecchi. Acosta and Martin were also tipped for podium places, alongside Aprilia and Trackhouse riders Raul Fernandez and Bezzecchi. One prediction had Marquez taking a ninth Sprint victory of the season and a third in succession; another suggested he could be beaten if Bezzecchi and the Aprilias deliver on their pace.

The Sunday race forecasts leaned more heavily towards Aprilia. Bezzecchi was picked to win by two writers, with Martin and Trackhouse’s Ai Ogura among their predicted podium finishers. Acosta was the alternative winner, with Bezzecchi and Ogura completing that forecast. One writer expected Trackhouse’s Fernandez to join Bezzecchi and Martin on the podium, while predicting Marquez would have to limit the damage because of his shoulder and Aprilia’s strengths. Another argued that Acosta could take full points despite being out of title contention, motivated by the chance to win at the iconic venue.

Marquez’s Ducati team-mate Francesco Bagnaia has yet to win at Phillip Island, although the 2022 and 2023 races were important to his title campaigns. He called it a circuit with “incredible charm,” an “extraordinary layout” and “pure adrenaline,” adding: “Let’s work hard from Friday and get the most out of our package.”

Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo also expects the farewell to make the weekend special. Although his best MotoGP result at Phillip Island is ninth and he has only one other top-10 there in his grand prix career, he said the circuit’s high-speed corners and changeable weather make it stand apart. After using the break to recharge, Quartararo said: “Phillip Island is a very unique circuit compared to most tracks we visit. It's also the last time we'll race here, so it will be special to experience the atmosphere one more time. For sure, I will give it my 100 per cent as always.”

His team-mate Alex Rins, who won at the circuit with Suzuki in 2022, said he was happy to return and had “many good memories here from different stages” of his career. “The layout is fantastic,” he said, adding that he wanted to enjoy every lap while doing a good job for Yamaha. Rins said the team had used the break to prepare and that he was looking forward to getting started.

The experts named several possible surprises: KTM Tech3’s Enea Bastianini, who could return to the leading group; Martin, whose recent consistency might falter at a demanding circuit; and Ducati WorldSBK rider Iker Lecuona, standing in for injured Fermin Aldeguer. Lecuona’s familiarity with Phillip Island and earlier results on the Gresini Ducati could help him reach the top 10.

Jack Miller’s farewell home Grand Prix also drew attention. The Australian is set to join Yamaha’s WorldSBK team in 2027, but his recent form and the V4 Yamaha M1’s pace make a major result difficult. Two predictions placed him in the top 15, while another saw a top-10 finish as his ceiling. All three saw scoring points as a worthwhile target in his final MotoGP race at home. Miller’s best Phillip Island result is third, achieved with Pramac in 2019; he also won the 2014 Moto3 race, and Turn 4 was named Miller Corner in 2022.

Miller said the weekend would be “special” for him and his team, as it marks both his last home MotoGP race before moving to Superbikes and Phillip Island’s final MotoGP event. “This place has given me some great memories, so it’s going to be an emotional one,” he said, adding that the team has “something special planned for the fans.” He will be joined in the Pramac Yamaha garage by Augusto Fernandez, replacing Toprak Razgatlioglu, who is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Miller wished Razgatlioglu well with his surgery and recovery.