HODGSON EXPECTS MARTIN TO EXTEND HIS TITLE LEAD OVER MARQUEZ

Jorge Martin’s Austrian Grand Prix performance has changed former rider Neil Hodgson’s view of the 2026 MotoGP title fight. Hodgson now expects the Aprilia rider to build a substantial advantage over Marc Marquez, while still believing the championship could remain undecided until the Valencia finale.

Martin reclaimed the championship lead at the Red Bull Ring, where he won the Sprint and finished second in Sunday’s race behind KTM’s Pedro Acosta. Marquez, who had taken the lead before arriving in Austria, came home fifth, 7.339 seconds behind Acosta. The Spaniards are now separated by 12 points: Martin has 306, Marquez 294. Marco Bezzecchi is third on 264.

Marquez’s weekend was affected by a brake-lever problem, while Ducati also struggled with Michelin’s heat-treated tyres. Aprilia has often adapted more readily to Michelin’s harder tyre carcass, an advantage that Hodgson believes could matter again at the Indonesian Grand Prix. He also felt Martin had raised his level in Austria, rather than relying solely on the difference between the bikes.

Speaking on the Gas It Out podcast, Hodgson called Austria “the biggest weekend of the year” because it reshaped expectations for the championship. After Marquez’s win at Misano, he said, it had seemed the returning champion might take control. “Marc isn’t going to dominate,” Hodgson said. “But how good is this, though? Because now Martin’s gone up [a level].”

Hodgson expects Ducati to be in difficulty at Mandalika, where the Indonesian GP is scheduled for October 9–11, and warned that Marquez could lose ground. “The Ducati is definitely, definitely, definitely not going to work in Indonesia. So, Marc’s going to haemorrhage points there,” he said. He added that the Japanese round, on October 2–4, should suit Ducati better, though he cautioned that it was “not a foregone conclusion.”

The Indonesian circuit also carries painful memories for Marquez. A first-lap collision with Bezzecchi in the 2025 race caused a fracture and ligament damage in his right shoulder, ending his season. When he returned in 2026, two screws in the shoulder were found to be bent and pressing against a nerve. A further operation removed them and a bone fragment, allowing him to ride more naturally. Since returning, Marquez has won five of nine Grands Prix.

Hodgson is already looking ahead to the Australian round at Phillip Island and believes Martin could have opened a significant gap by then. “I’m genuinely feeling we will be in Valencia with a championship on our hands,” he said. “There’ll definitely be two people in the title race.” Seven rounds remain before the planned Valencia finale on November 27–29, with the Qatar round still subject to going ahead as scheduled.