MOTEGI WIN PREDICTIONS SPLIT BETWEEN MARQUEZ, ACOSTA AND APRILIA

MotoGP heads to Motegi for the Japanese Grand Prix, round 16 of the 2026 season, with predictions split over who can challenge Marc Marquez. Pedro Acosta arrives fresh from his maiden premier-class victory in Austria, and the KTM rider has reason to feel at home: he took his first MotoGP pole at Motegi in 2024 and was in contention for the win before crashing.

Last year’s race offers a reminder that past form may not settle this weekend’s contest. Francesco Bagnaia swept the 2025 Sprint and Grand Prix from pole despite a difficult season, but he has managed only two finishes in his past six Grands Prix this year. The Ducati rider is ninth in the standings, 150 points behind leader Jorge Martin, who holds a 12-point advantage over Marquez.

The experts disagree on qualifying. Kyle Archer backs Marquez, noting that the Ducati rider has taken three poles this season, though none in the past four rounds. Tyler Rowlinson expects a close contest between Aprilia and Ducati and tips Marco Bezzecchi. David Comerford instead sees Acosta repeating his 2024 pole performance, encouraged by the KTM rider’s current form.

Their Sprint predictions are similarly varied. Archer picks Marquez, Acosta and Martin as the leading contenders, saying a pole position would put Marquez in a strong position to win. Rowlinson favours Bezzecchi, arguing that Motegi’s clockwise layout could suit him against Marquez, while Comerford predicts Acosta will hold off Marquez for his second Sprint victory of the year. He also expects home rider Ai Ogura to reach the podium after returning from injury with an impressive fourth place in Austria.

For Sunday’s Grand Prix, Archer tips Marquez to win ahead of Martin, with Ogura third. He is less convinced Acosta can put together the package for a podium, but says a strong qualifying and start could help Ogura break into the leading fight. Rowlinson predicts a Bezzecchi victory over Marquez and a surprise return to the podium for Bagnaia. Comerford also selects Marquez to win, believing he will deny Acosta back-to-back Grand Prix victories, with Acosta second and Martin third.

Bagnaia is also Rowlinson’s pick for the weekend’s biggest surprise. He points to the Ducati rider’s unexpected double victory at Motegi last year and thinks another sudden recovery could put him back among the top three. Archer names Diogo Moreira, who will be keen to respond after finishing 15th in Austria and retiring at the San Marino GP. Moreira is competing for a factory Honda seat for 2027, and another difficult weekend could strengthen questions about his prospects.

Comerford’s surprise choice is Honda test rider Takaaki Nakagami. After scoring points in Austria while substituting for the unwell Joan Mir, Nakagami returns as a wildcard at his home race. Comerford believes he could make the top 10. The predictions underline an open weekend, with Marquez, Acosta, Martin and Bezzecchi all attracting support—and several experts expecting Motegi’s home crowd to have a rider to cheer near the front.